28 January 2008

Republican Endgame (already?)?

The media are now treating the Republican primary campaign as a two-man race. They're leaving Giuliani for dead, victim of his own suicidal strategy, marginalizing Huckabee, and ignoring Paul, to focus on McCain vs. Romney. It would seem that Mr. Right was right about Romney being the stop-McCain candidate, if only because only Romney can afford to block the popular tide. According to this item, both men are reduced to calling one another "liberals." The problem is, too many movement people already believe both sets of charges. But it may be that self-styled conservatives (those who are trying to define an orthodoxy by excluding others) are more willing to hold their noses for Romney because they buy his claim that business expertise qualifies someone for the Presidency. The problem with this viewpoint, as I've told people since Ross Perot's time, is that you can't fire the American people. Meanwhile, McCain is apparently trying to cater to Giuliani's base by blustering about the war on terror being the primary issue in the primary. My hunch is that if Giuliani quits, either he'll endorse McCain or his supporters will go to him on their own. If others share my hunch, there will likely be some pressure on the former mayor to stay in the campaign. He should at least stay on until next week to see if his name recognition and possible fatigue at McCain-Romney negativism help him out on Big Tuesday. There's still opportunity for Huckabee to collect plenty of Southern delegates as well, so I think the media are premature in announcing the final round in this race.

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