At the Polls

South Carolina is reporting returns from the Republican primary as I write, and it's too close between McCain, who has led so far, and Huckabee for any news network to declare a victor. It'll be between Romney, who took the Nevada caucuses, and Thompson for the bronze. If third is the best Thompson can do in South Carolina, when he should have been the natural conservative alternative to the alleged apostates McCain and Huckabee, that fact is damning. I begin to believe that he's now staying in the race only to take votes from Huckabee. He was DOA in Nevada, where it looks like Ron Paul will actually take second place with approximately 13% of the vote. The story of Nevada should be that Romney whipped the field and got an outright majority, but because the GOP still has a large field, Paul will probably emerge with renewed "viability," despite what looks like a poor performance in South Carolina, because he can say he finished second out of six candidates -- Duncan Hunter having finally given up. None of the six, not even Thompson, should think about quitting until "Super Tuesday," because the number and diversity of states voting on Feb. 5 could drastically redraw the game board. Having said that, I expect Thompson to be the next to retire.

As for the Democrats in Nevada, who wait until next week in South Carolina, the caucuses demonstrate that the campaign is now almost completely polarized between Clinton and Obama. Edwards's position is now hopeless except if he can win some Southern states as a regional favorite son. Clinton got another close victory thanks (the exit polls assert) to women, Hispanics and older voters. We are told that the "party faithful" are rallying to Clinton, which to me is an indictment of party faith, since that seems to involve a belief that the Senator from New York is "due" despite the emergence of arguably a more electable candidate.

It's becoming more apparent, to me at least, that it is imperative for Clinton, if she wins the nomination, to ask Obama to be her running mate. He might not enjoy the prospect, and would probably be breaking a promise if he accepts the offer, but Clinton will be even more handicapped than before if Obama (and by extension his supporters) appear to be shut out of the ticket, and Obama would have to appreciate that he'll be needed if Nominee Clinton is to drive the Republicans out of the White House. I don't feel the same way about the opposite prospect. I don't think Nominee Obama needs to put Clinton on his ticket, and I think she'd be even less likely to accept such a deal. I just have a hunch that women will be less likely to sulk and stay home than black voters, especially if women are made to believe that abortion rights depend on Democratic victory. Thanks to the abortion issue, feminist women are probably even more taken for granted by Democratic leaders than blacks claim to be. That gives Obama more leeway to choose a running mate more to his liking, should he prevail, but I won't begin to speculate about his choice until it looks more likely that he'll get one.

And as I finish writing, it's still too close to call between McCain and Huckabee.