The Second Santorum Surge

Rick Santorum's three victories over Mitt Romney last night may be mostly symbolic, but symbolism by definition has significance. What does Santorum's sweep signify? If anything, it may be the ultimate defeat of Newt Gingrich, but Gingrich doesn't agree with this reading. It's clear enough that Santorum, not Gingrich (nor Paul) was the anyone-but-Romney candidate in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, but that still won't necessarily be true elsewhere. Although Gingrich hopes for and predicts victory in Ohio, his appeal may be geographically limited to those Old South territories (not counting more cosmopolitan Florida) where his manner is least obnoxious and Santorum may be most suspect for being a yankee. On the other hand, Santorum may have convinced voters in the three states -- with an alleged boost from Rush Limbaugh -- that he is the truest or most consistent conservative, or at least the one with the least "baggage" of questionable votes. Romney disputes the last point. His strategy remains to portray both Santorum and Gingrich as compromised "insiders" by virtue of their time in Congress. In politics, who is "inside" and who is "outside" depends on the eye of the beholder. Romney can claim to be an outsider relative to Congress, though by most standards based on ordinary life he is an ultimate insider. Gingrich can claim outsider status despite his Speakership on the ground, regularly verified by his enemies, that he didn't get along with most of the insiders. Santorum doesn't seem as interested in playing the insider-outsider game -- or at least he's less interested in portraying himself as an outsider than in debunking Romney's claim to that status. He seems the least apologetic about his time in government and the least likely, apart from Paul, to play a populist card. Those are small virtues in the larger scheme of things, but some Republicans may appreciate a candidate who doesn't, at least on one point, insult their intelligence. Still, Santorum's stop-Romney campaign is hopeless so long as Gingrich remains in the race, and the former Speaker has shown no sign yet of deference either to the social-conservative elders who endorsed Santorum last month or to the GOP voters who've rejected Newt in all but one state so far. The social-conservative Tea Party movement, supposedly based on timeless principles, seems likely to fall apart over questions of personal style, while their rage against Romney still seems likely only to help the Man From Bain in the general election. It may be costly to continue fighting these primary and caucus battles, but so long as Romney believes that neither man can knock him out, he may find it in his long-term interest to prop them up and keep them swinging rather than floor them right away. The longer he can delay the day when he is portrayed as the right-wing extremist in the presidential race, the better for him. For that reason at least, I doubt that Romney's sweating today.