Ron Paul's People

I saw something today. I was taking a bus from mall to mall and turning right at the corner of Central Avenue and Wolf Road, just past the far southwest edge of the Colonie Center parking lot. On that corner there were three man standing and waving signs, with more signs embedded in snowbanks and mounted on a fence. They were Ron Paul supporters in Albany, New York, urging people to "Google Ron Paul," as the current mantra goes. I heard at least one car honk its horn, perhaps in approval, as the bus turned the corner. Two hours later, I was on a bus leaving the more, turning the corner in the other direction, and the three guys were still there.

Does it mean anything that people will do this for Ron Paul and not for Romney, Giuliani, McCain or even Huckabee, and not for Clinton or Obama or Edwards? At least I haven't seen any similar demonstrations for those people in my town yet. Maybe I'll see them soon as it sinks in that New York may actually be in play for both parties. Giuliani is sinking in the GOP polls as attention continues to focus on Romney and Huckabee, and this week's health scare can't help matters. There are signs that Huckabee is starting to organize here to dispute a state that Giuliani might have taken for granted. Clinton is unlikely to strike a knockout blow before the New York primary, and her home-field advantage may be outweighed by the growing madness of her campaign in the face of Obama's challenge. In weeks to come, we may see quite a bit, but we've seen Ron Paul's people first. What does this mean?

Should we assume that some people believe in Ron Paul and his message, or part of it, more than anyone believes in any other candidate? Maybe Ron Paul's people are truer believers than any other faction, but does their enthusiasm translate into successful electioneering? Their efforts still seem oriented toward getting people to look at web sites. There's an echo of Howard Dean there, and that's not a good sign. Dean's defeat in 2004 showed that you couldn't win a party primary with an Internet affinity group. As of four years ago, you still needed retail politics, phone solicitations, people going door-to-door. Are Ron Paul's people doing this? Are they prepared to? We know that they know how to raise money, and that people are eager to give. Does anyone know how to spend it?

Rep. Paul is going to make his stand in New Hampshire. Things haven't looked good for him, as this poll shows, but the most recent reports have him moving up a little. Even now, however, people speculate that he could finish no better than third among the Republicans. I found it interesting that in New Hampshire, Paul had the highest negative name recognition of any GOP candidate. That might mean that the locals dislike his stand on Iraq, or that they're sick of all the posters and bumper stickers. But no state is more likely to support Paul, given libertarian efforts to colonize the place. Maybe because the media know that the great test of Paul's true strength is near, they're paying more attention. He'll get the Tim Russert treatment on Meet the Press tomorrow. His people are fending off gotcha attempts like this one about a white supremacist campaign donation. Take a look at the reader comments in response to the story, and here as well. Make of them what you will, but a lot of the boasting and bluster looks like the kind of wishful thinking we saw throughout 2003. Maybe it won't end quite the same way, but like the last one, this election won't be won with signs of website hits. I'll probably return to this subject tomorrow after I've watched Paul on the Russert show, and I may address some of my reservations about his message then.